On the game show et´s Make a Deal, Monty Hall shows you three doors. Behind one of the doors is a new car, the other two hide goats. You choose one door, perhaps #1. Now Monty shows you what´s behind door #2 and it´s a goat.He gives you the chance to stay with original pick or select door #3. What do you do?
You should always abandon your original choice in favor of the remaining door (#3). When you make your first choice the chance of winning is 1 in 3 or 33%. When you switch doors, you turn a 2 in 3 chance of losing in the first round into a 2 in 3 chance of winning in the second round.
Search: Monty Hall problem
You are a prisoner sentenced to death. The Emperor offers you a chance to live by playing a simple game. He gives you 50 black marbles, 50 white marbles and 2 empty bowls. He then says, "Divide these 100 marbles into these 2 bowls. You can divide them any way you like as long as you use all the marbles. Then I will blindfold you and mix the bowls around. You then can choose one bowl and remove ONE marble. If the marble is WHITE you will live, but if the marble is BLACK... you will die." How do you divide the marbles up so that you have the greatest probability of choosing a WHITE marble?
HINT: The answer does not guarantee 100% you will chose a white marble, but you have a much better chance.
Place 1 white marble in the bowl, and place the rest of the marbles in the other bowl (49 whites, and 50 blacks). This way you begin a 50/50 chance of choosing the bowl with just one white marble, therefore life! BUT even if you choose the other bowl, you still have almost a 50/50 chance at picking one of the 49 white marbles.