Presume that you do not know what a rhino looks like. Now the question goes like this:
If one day while walking in a forest with two of your close friends, one friend shows you an elephant and tells that this is a rhino, and another friend shows you a hippopotamus and tells you that this is rhino, who would you believe and why?
I told you that you do not know what a rhino looks like, not that you are unaware of what a hippo and elephant look like. So you shouldn't believe either of them.
A man who lives in Middletown has two girlfriends, one in Northtown and one in Southtown. Trains from the Middletown train station leave for Northtown once every hour. Separate trains from the station also leave for Southtown once every hour. No trains go to both Northtown and Southtown.
Each day he gets to the Middletown train station at a completely random time and gets onto the first train that is going to either Northtown or Southtown, whichever comes first.
After a few months, he realizes that he spends 80% of his days with his girlfriend from Northtown, and only 20% of his days with his girlfriend from Southtown.
How could this be?
The train to Northtown leaves every hour, on the hour (9:00AM, 10:00AM, etc...).
The train to Southtown leaves at 12 after the hour (9:12AM, 10:12AM, etc...).
So there is only a 12/60 (1/5) chance that he will end up on the train to Southtown each day, since he will usually get to the station during the 48 minutes of each hour when the train to Northtown will be the next to come.
