It's 7:00 am. You are asleep and there is a sudden knock on the door.
Behind the door are your parents, who came to have breakfast.
In your fridge: bread, pasteurised milk, juice, and a jar of jam.
What will you open first?
Your friend shows you two jars, one with 100 red marbles in it, the other with 100 blue marbles in it.
He proposes a game. He'll put the two jars behind his back and tell you to pick one of them at random. You'll then close your eyes, he'll hand you the jar you picked, and you'll pick a random marble from that jar.
You win if the marble you pick is blue, and you lose otherwise.
To give you the best shot at winning, your friend gives you the two jars before the game starts and says you can move the marbles around however you'd like, as long as all 200 marbles are in the 2 jars (that is, you can't throw any marbles away).
How should you move the marbles around to give yourself the best chance of picking a blue marble?
Put one blue marble in one jar, and put the rest of the marbles in the other jar. This will give you just about a 75% chance of picking a blue marble.